Hawthorn v Sydney Swans

Thu 19 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

HAW by 10

HAW to win, 63% chance

HAW 63%37% SYD

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

HAW by 17

HIT Actual margin 17 · 7.4 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Jai Newcombe	RR	25.0	-	-	99%	87%	53%	18%	3%	31.0
Karl Amon	WR	24.1	-	-	98%	83%	46%	14%	2%	16.0
Josh Ward	INT	21.7	-	-	95%	67%	27%	5%	0%	27.0
Dylan Moore	WL	21.4	-	-	94%	65%	25%	5%	0%	22.0
James Sicily	CHB	21.0	-	-	93%	62%	22%	4%	0%	23.0
Jarman Impey	BPR	20.9	-	-	93%	61%	21%	4%	0%	19.0
Josh Battle	HBFL	19.6	-	-	88%	49%	14%	2%	0%	22.0
Jack Ginnivan	HFFL	19.4	-	-	87%	47%	12%	2%	0%	22.0
Conor Nash	CHF	19.1	-	-	86%	45%	11%	1%	0%	19.0
Massimo D'Ambrosio	INT	18.8	-	-	84%	42%	10%	1%	0%	18.0
Connor Macdonald	INT	18.2	-	-	80%	37%	8%	1%	0%	20.0
Cam Mackenzie	C	17.1	-	-	73%	27%	4%	0%	0%	17.0
Blake Hardwick	HBFR	17.0	-	-	72%	27%	4%	0%	0%	15.0
Josh Weddle	R	16.9	-	-	71%	25%	4%	0%	0%	20.0
Jack Scrimshaw	BPL	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	22.0
Lloyd Meek	RK	13.5	-	-	38%	6%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Nick Watson	HFFR	13.1	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Jack Gunston	FPR	12.0	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Mabior Chol	INT	11.7	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Sam Butler	FPL	10.5	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Tom Barrass	FB	10.4	-	-	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Mitch Lewis	FF	9.1	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Ned Reeves	INT	8.4	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0

Sydney Swans

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Callum Mills	BPR	22.5	-	-	96%	73%	32%	7%	1%	29.0
Nick Blakey	CHB	21.2	-	-	93%	63%	23%	4%	0%	23.0
Chad Warner	R	21.1	-	-	93%	62%	22%	4%	0%	27.0
Justin McInerney	C	20.6	-	-	92%	58%	19%	3%	0%	24.0
Jake Lloyd	INT	19.0	-	-	85%	44%	10%	1%	0%	19.0
Matt Roberts	WR	18.4	-	-	82%	39%	8%	1%	0%	13.0
Brodie Grundy	RK	18.0	-	-	79%	34%	7%	1%	0%	19.0
Angus Sheldrick	INT	17.2	-	-	74%	28%	5%	0%	0%	19.0
James Rowbottom	RR	15.8	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	12.0
James Jordon	CHF	15.4	-	-	58%	15%	2%	0%	0%	12.0
Riley Bice	HBFR	15.0	-	-	53%	12%	1%	0%	0%	24.0
Tom Papley	FF	14.9	-	-	53%	12%	1%	0%	0%	14.0
Tom McCartin	FB	14.5	-	-	48%	10%	1%	0%	0%	13.0
Sam Wicks	HBFL	14.3	-	-	46%	9%	1%	0%	0%	13.0
Dane Rampe	INT	13.9	-	-	42%	7%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Corey Warner	HFFR	12.2	-	-	25%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Jai Serong	WL	12.1	-	-	23%	2%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Caiden Cleary	INT	12.0	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	4.0
Charlie Curnow	FPR	11.1	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Logan McDonald	INT	10.5	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Malcolm Rosas	HFFL	9.8	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Lewis Melican	BPL	9.1	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Joel Amartey	FPL	8.3	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0