AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Hawthorn v Sydney Swans
Thu 19 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 63% chance
HAW 63%37% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 93 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | 100 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 93 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 81 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 81 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 87 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 99 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 89 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 60 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 90 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 80 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 72 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 80 | - | - | 67% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 76 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 89 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 76 | - | - | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 84 |
| Conor Nash | CHF | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 86 |
| Josh Weddle | R | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 74 |
| Mabior Chol | INT | 72 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 56 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 71 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 62 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 71 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 67 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 73 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 80 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 70 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 49 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 80 |
| Sam Butler | FPL | 49 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 63 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 27% | 88 |
| Callum Mills | BPR | 85 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 12% | 98 |
| Chad Warner | R | 85 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 82 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 85 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 83 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 85 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 80 |
| James Rowbottom | RR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 80 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 73 | - | - | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 47 |
| Tom Papley | FF | 69 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 53 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 74 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 58 |
| Charlie Curnow | FPR | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 35 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 87 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 78 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 57 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 33 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 43 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 49 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 19 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 31 |
| Corey Warner | HFFR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 59 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 35 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 41 | - | - | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 34 |