AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Hawthorn v Sydney Swans
Thu 19 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 10
HAW to win, 63% chance
HAW 63%37% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 17
HIT Actual margin 17 · 7.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | CHF | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 75% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 9.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.0 | - | - | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 67% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 61% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | FPL | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Josh Weddle | R | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Karl Amon | WR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | RR | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 12.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.7 | - | - | 72% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Caiden Cleary | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| James Jordon | CHF | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.1 | - | - | 61% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Jai Serong | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Corey Warner | HFFR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Papley | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FPR | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |