Port Adelaide v Essendon

Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:45pm ACDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

PA by 15

PA to win, 70% chance

PA 70%30% ESS

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

PA by 63

HIT Actual margin 63 · 47.7 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Port Adelaide

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Zak Butters	RR	26.8	-	-	100%	93%	66%	29%	7%	36.0
Will Brodie	INT	24.0	-	-	98%	82%	45%	13%	2%	-
Connor Rozee	C	23.8	-	-	98%	81%	43%	12%	2%	21.0
Kane Farrell	HBFR	20.1	-	-	90%	54%	16%	2%	0%	17.0
Miles Bergman	HBFL	18.7	-	-	83%	41%	9%	1%	0%	10.0
Willem Drew	R	18.2	-	-	80%	36%	7%	1%	0%	21.0
Jason Horne-Francis	HFFL	17.9	-	-	78%	34%	6%	1%	0%	26.0
Jase Burgoyne	BPL	17.8	-	-	78%	33%	6%	0%	0%	22.0
Jack Watkins	INT	16.0	-	-	63%	19%	2%	0%	0%	23.0
Josh Lai	INT	16.0	-	-	63%	19%	2%	0%	0%	-
Jordon Sweet	RK	14.0	-	-	43%	8%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Jacob Wehr	WR	13.8	-	-	41%	7%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Darcy Byrne-Jones	FPL	13.4	-	-	36%	5%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Joe Richards	FPR	13.4	-	-	37%	6%	0%	0%	0%	21.0
Jackson Mead	INT	13.1	-	-	34%	5%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Logan Evans	WL	13.0	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	22.0
Ewan Mackinlay	INT	12.1	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	18.0
Aliir Aliir	CHB	11.8	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	21.0
Mitch Georgiades	CHF	11.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Joe Berry	HFFR	11.0	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Jack Lukosius	INT	10.5	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Corey Durdin	INT	10.4	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Esava Ratugolea	FB	10.2	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Todd Marshall	BPR	8.8	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Jack Whitlock	FF	8.3	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Dante Visentini	INT	7.8	-	-	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-

Essendon

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Zach Merrett	R	26.8	-	-	100%	93%	66%	29%	7%	25.0
Darcy Parish	RR	25.9	-	-	99%	90%	60%	23%	5%	24.0
Archie Roberts	HBFL	23.5	-	-	98%	79%	40%	11%	2%	26.0
Andrew McGrath	HBFR	23.3	-	-	97%	78%	39%	10%	1%	21.0
Jye Caldwell	C	23.1	-	-	97%	77%	37%	10%	1%	27.0
Mason Redman	CHB	22.8	-	-	97%	75%	35%	9%	1%	4.0
Sam Durham	HFFL	20.3	-	-	91%	56%	18%	3%	0%	21.0
Brayden Fiorini	WR	19.1	-	-	85%	44%	11%	1%	0%	10.0
Xavier Duursma	WL	17.7	-	-	77%	32%	6%	0%	0%	15.0
Jade Gresham	INT	15.3	-	-	56%	14%	1%	0%	0%	-
Dyson Sharp	INT	14.9	-	-	53%	12%	1%	0%	0%	5.0
Max Kondogiannis	INT	14.9	-	-	53%	12%	1%	0%	0%	12.0
Jaxon Prior	BPL	14.5	-	-	49%	10%	1%	0%	0%	20.0
Zach Reid	BPR	14.3	-	-	46%	9%	1%	0%	0%	14.0
Zak Johnson	INT	13.4	-	-	37%	6%	0%	0%	0%	26.0
Saad El-Hawli	INT	13.0	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	-
Archie Perkins	HFFR	12.2	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Kyle Langford	FPR	11.9	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Isaac Kako	FPL	11.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Peter Wright	FF	10.4	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	11.0
Jayden Nguyen	INT	10.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Hussien El Achkar	INT	9.8	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5.0
Lachlan Blakiston	RK	9.7	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Ben McKay	FB	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Nate Caddy	CHF	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Archer May	INT	8.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-