Port Adelaide v Essendon

Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:45pm ACDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

PA by 15

PA to win, 70% chance

PA 70%30% ESS

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

PA by 63

HIT Actual margin 63 · 47.7 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Port Adelaide

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Zak Butters	RR	101	-	-	93%	84%	70%	52%	34%	144
Connor Rozee	C	95	-	-	88%	76%	60%	41%	24%	72
Jordon Sweet	RK	86	-	-	77%	60%	42%	25%	12%	67
Will Brodie	INT	86	-	-	78%	61%	43%	26%	13%	-
Jason Horne-Francis	HFFL	80	-	-	68%	50%	32%	17%	8%	128
Miles Bergman	HBFL	80	-	-	68%	50%	32%	18%	8%	46
Kane Farrell	HBFR	79	-	-	66%	48%	30%	16%	7%	96
Willem Drew	R	78	-	-	64%	45%	28%	14%	6%	92
Jase Burgoyne	BPL	70	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	92
Jack Watkins	INT	68	-	-	45%	28%	14%	6%	2%	95
Josh Lai	INT	68	-	-	45%	28%	14%	6%	2%	-
Mitch Georgiades	CHF	68	-	-	45%	28%	14%	6%	2%	85
Joe Richards	FPR	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	105
Darcy Byrne-Jones	FPL	59	-	-	30%	16%	7%	3%	1%	55
Aliir Aliir	CHB	57	-	-	28%	14%	6%	2%	1%	121
Todd Marshall	BPR	57	-	-	27%	14%	6%	2%	1%	82
Jack Lukosius	INT	56	-	-	25%	13%	5%	2%	0%	101
Jacob Wehr	WR	56	-	-	25%	13%	5%	2%	0%	69
Dante Visentini	INT	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	-
Corey Durdin	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	4%	2%	0%	47
Jackson Mead	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	55
Logan Evans	WL	54	-	-	22%	11%	4%	2%	0%	103
Ewan Mackinlay	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	74
Joe Berry	HFFR	52	-	-	19%	9%	4%	1%	0%	73
Esava Ratugolea	FB	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	58
Jack Whitlock	FF	46	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	46

Essendon

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Zach Merrett	R	99	-	-	92%	82%	66%	48%	30%	100
Jye Caldwell	C	92	-	-	86%	72%	55%	36%	20%	106
Darcy Parish	RR	90	-	-	83%	69%	50%	32%	18%	68
Mason Redman	CHB	89	-	-	81%	66%	48%	30%	16%	18
Andrew McGrath	HBFR	84	-	-	74%	57%	38%	22%	11%	70
Archie Roberts	HBFL	84	-	-	74%	57%	38%	22%	11%	86
Sam Durham	HFFL	79	-	-	66%	48%	30%	16%	7%	77
Brayden Fiorini	WR	70	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	34
Xavier Duursma	WL	70	-	-	50%	32%	17%	8%	3%	50
Dyson Sharp	INT	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	16
Jade Gresham	INT	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	-
Max Kondogiannis	INT	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	29
Jaxon Prior	BPL	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	74
Zach Reid	BPR	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	53
Kyle Langford	FPR	59	-	-	31%	16%	7%	3%	1%	45
Peter Wright	FF	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	54
Archie Perkins	HFFR	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	40
Saad El-Hawli	INT	52	-	-	20%	9%	4%	1%	0%	-
Isaac Kako	FPL	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	55
Zak Johnson	INT	49	-	-	17%	8%	3%	1%	0%	90
Nate Caddy	CHF	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	85
Archer May	INT	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	-
Lachlan Blakiston	RK	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	44
Hussien El Achkar	INT	44	-	-	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	18
Jayden Nguyen	INT	44	-	-	11%	4%	2%	0%	0%	31
Ben McKay	FB	43	-	-	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	21