AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Essendon
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 15
PA to win, 70% chance
PA 70%30% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 47.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 3.2 | - | - | 96% | 83% | 62% | 40% | 22% | 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.4 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 0.7 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | WL | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 65% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |