AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Essendon
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 15
PA to win, 70% chance
PA 70%30% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 47.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 26.8 / 36.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 4.6 / 6.0 | 101 / 144 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 24.0 / - | 0.4 / - | 2.3 / - | 5.1 / - | 86 / - |
| Connor Rozee | C | 23.8 / 21.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 95 / 72 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 20.1 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 9.0 | 2.4 / 5.0 | 79 / 96 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 18.7 / 10.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 4.3 / 0.0 | 80 / 46 |
| Willem Drew | R | 18.2 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 5.6 / 5.0 | 78 / 92 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 17.9 / 26.0 | 1.3 / 3.0 | 4.2 / 10.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 80 / 128 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 17.8 / 22.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 4.0 | 2.6 / 4.0 | 70 / 92 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 16.0 / 23.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 68 / 95 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 16.0 / - | 0.9 / - | 3.6 / - | 2.2 / - | 68 / - |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 14.0 / 12.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 0.0 | 86 / 67 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 13.8 / 18.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 8.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 56 / 69 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 13.4 / 12.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 59 / 55 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 13.4 / 21.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 5.0 | 2.9 / 6.0 | 60 / 105 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.1 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 6.0 | 2.9 / 0.0 | 54 / 55 |
| Logan Evans | WL | 13.0 / 22.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 11.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 54 / 103 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 12.1 / 18.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 53 / 74 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 11.8 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 19.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 57 / 121 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.2 / 14.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 9.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 68 / 85 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.0 / 19.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 52 / 73 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 10.5 / 16.0 | 1.2 / 3.0 | 4.1 / 10.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 56 / 101 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 10.4 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 54 / 47 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 10.2 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 9.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 48 / 58 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 8.8 / 15.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 11.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 57 / 82 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.3 / 8.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 6.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 46 / 46 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 7.8 / - | 0.6 / - | 2.6 / - | 2.4 / - | 55 / - |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.8 / 25.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 6.0 | 4.7 / 4.0 | 99 / 100 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 25.9 / 24.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 90 / 68 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 23.5 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 84 / 86 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 23.3 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 84 / 70 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 23.1 / 27.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 5.7 / 6.0 | 92 / 106 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 22.8 / 4.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 89 / 18 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 20.3 / 21.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 79 / 77 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 19.1 / 10.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 70 / 34 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 17.7 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 70 / 50 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 15.3 / - | 0.6 / - | 2.9 / - | 3.4 / - | 65 / - |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 14.9 / 5.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 65 / 16 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 14.9 / 12.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 65 / 29 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 14.5 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 60 / 74 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 14.3 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 60 / 53 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 13.4 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 49 / 90 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 13.0 / - | 0.3 / - | 3.2 / - | 2.2 / - | 52 / - |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 12.2 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 52 / 40 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 11.9 / 10.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 59 / 45 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 11.2 / 11.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 51 / 55 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.4 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 55 / 54 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 10.1 / 14.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 44 / 31 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 9.8 / 5.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 44 / 18 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 9.7 / 9.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 45 / 44 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 9.4 / 6.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 43 / 21 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 9.4 / 12.0 | 1.5 / 4.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 48 / 85 |
| Archer May | INT | 8.0 / - | 0.7 / - | 2.6 / - | 2.7 / - | 45 / - |