AFL · ROUND 2 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Essendon
Sun 22 Mar 2026, 2:45pm ACDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 15
PA to win, 70% chance
PA 70%30% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 47.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.6 | - | - | 92% | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 5.0 |
| Will Brodie | INT | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 57% | 40% | 25% | - |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.6 | - | - | 84% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 18% | 6.0 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 0.0 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 4.2 | - | - | 78% | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 51% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | BPL | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Josh Lai | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Logan Evans | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 5.7 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 6.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 4.0 | - | - | 77% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Jade Gresham | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | - |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 59% | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Saad El-Hawli | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.7 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |