AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 36
GCS to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 32.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 19% | 114 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 85 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 86 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 132 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 86 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 13% | 86 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 84 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 74 |
| Jack Ross | C | 82 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 88 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 55 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 82 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Ben Miller | FB | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 56 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 86 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 8 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 42 |
| James Trezise | INT | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 33 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 57 | - | - | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 31 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 55 | - | - | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 42 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 59 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 79 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 35 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 48 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 53 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 23 |
| Steely Green | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 25 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 104 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 94 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 69 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 93 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 108 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 91 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 70 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 89 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 91 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 111 |
| Wil Powell | C | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 97 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 73 | - | - | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 59 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 133 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 36 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 66 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 79 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 61 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 92 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 46 |
| Bailey Humphrey | FPL | 64 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 53 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 68 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 99 |
| Ben King | FF | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 89 |
| Ben Long | INT | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 52 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 36 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 68 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 51 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 65 |