AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 36
GCS to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 32.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 87% | 61% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 62% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 0.5 | - | - | 42% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| James Trezise | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 96% | 84% | 63% | 41% | 23% | 7.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 52% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | FPL | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 0.8 | - | - | 55% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |