AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 36
GCS to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 32.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 6.6 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 64% | 49% | 34% | 3.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 6.5 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 13.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 7.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 22% | 5.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 5.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.2 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 57% | 42% | 27% | 16.0 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 3.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 13.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.3 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | 17% | 10.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 59% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 6.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 3.9 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 11.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 8.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |