AFL · ROUND 2 · MCG
Richmond v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 21 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 36
GCS to win, 87% chance
RIC 13%87% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 68
HIT Actual margin 68 · 32.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 12.0 |
| Jack Ross | C | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 6.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 69% | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | - |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 3.4 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 5.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | HFFR | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | R | 3.2 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | CHB | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Brown | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies | INT | 4.9 | - | - | 87% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 6.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 4.8 | - | - | 86% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 1.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 3.8 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 8.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | FPL | 3.1 | - | - | 61% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Ethan Read | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |