AFL · ROUND 20 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 44.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.5 | 16.9 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 66% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.1 | 16.6 to 37.5 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.2 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WL | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | WR | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.4 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.8 to 24.8 | 61% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.3 | 1.5 to 14.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 31.0 | 26.7 to 35.4 | 19.9 to 42.2 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 57% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Dan Houston | WL | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.1 | 12.6 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.7 | 83% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 18.5 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.7 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Liam Puncher | HBFL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.4 | 1.6 to 14.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |