AFL · ROUND 20 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 44.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 114 | 97 to 130 | 73 to 155 | 96% | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 89 | 74 to 105 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| James Peatling | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 43 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | WR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 63% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Luke Nankervis | WL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| James Borlase | FB | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 49 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 83 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 110 | 94 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | outside our 90% range: 137 |
| Dan Houston | WL | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Ned Long | RR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 114 |
| Edward Allan | C | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 51 | 37 to 65 | 16 to 85 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 48 | 35 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Liam Puncher | HBFL | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Charlie West | INT | 37 | 24 to 50 | 4 to 70 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |