AFL · ROUND 20 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 44.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 71% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 53% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 33% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | WR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 45% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 37% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dan Houston | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Puncher | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |