AFL · ROUND 20 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 7:00pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 11
ADE to win, 66% chance
ADE 66%34% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 34
MISS Actual margin 34 · 44.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Milera | HBFR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 69% | 53% | 38% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 19% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 62% | 45% | 27% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Murray | BPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 43% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | R | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| James Borlase | FB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | WR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 26% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | HFFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 27% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Finnbar Maley | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Taylor | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | FPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Houston | WL | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 26% | 17% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jeremy Howe | FB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Harry Perryman | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Daicos | CHF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Crisp | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 28% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 25% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Long | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Puncher | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Edward Allan | C | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |