AFL · ROUND 20 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 41
BRI to win, 93% chance
BRI 93%7% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 59
HIT Actual margin 59 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 28.6 | 24.4 to 32.8 | 17.8 to 39.3 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 28.2 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 25.0 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.4 | 18.7 to 26.2 | 12.8 to 32.1 | 92% | 70% | 35% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | R | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 15.7 | 12.4 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.5 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.3 to 17.5 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | R | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 19.3 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Willem Drew | WR | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Watkins | WL | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.5 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 38% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 10.4 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.8 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 9.1 | 6.4 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.0 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | HFFR | 8.0 | 5.5 to 10.5 | 1.6 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 7.7 | 5.2 to 10.1 | 1.4 to 14.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 6.0 | 3.7 to 8.2 | 0.2 to 11.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |