AFL · ROUND 20 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 41
BRI to win, 93% chance
BRI 93%7% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 59
HIT Actual margin 59 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 66 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 61% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 126 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 107 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 62% | 44% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 133 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 80 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 79 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Hugh McCluggage | R | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 70 | 56 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Jase Burgoyne | R | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 79 | 64 to 94 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Willem Drew | WR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 77 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jack Watkins | WL | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 20 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 13 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Mitch Zadow | HFFR | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 79 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |