AFL · ROUND 20 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 1:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 41
BRI to win, 93% chance
BRI 93%7% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 59
HIT Actual margin 59 · 17.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.9 | 1.9 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.2 | 84% | 60% | 46% | 30% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 52% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | R | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Neale | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ty Gallop | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | FPR | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 62% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 47% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 49% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 35% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Moraes | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 24% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ollie Wines | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |