AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 16
CAR to win, 73% chance
CAR 73%27% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 2.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.1 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 40.0 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 45% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 16.9 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 29% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.7 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.1 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 19.3 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Will Hayward | CHF | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Harry Dean | FB | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 28.3 | 24.2 to 32.5 | 17.6 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 72% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Touk Miller | WL | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.7 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.1 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 24.4 | 20.4 to 28.3 | 14.3 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | WR | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.3 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 11.0 | 8.1 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.4 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 8.1 | 5.6 to 10.6 | 1.7 to 14.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 7.8 | 5.3 to 10.2 | 1.4 to 14.1 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |