AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 16
CAR to win, 73% chance
CAR 73%27% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 2.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 35% | outside our 90% range: 5 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| George Hewett | INT | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 45% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Will Hayward | CHF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Harry Dean | FB | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 110 | 93 to 126 | 69 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | outside our 90% range: 61 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Touk Miller | WL | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Daniel Rioli | WR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 85 | 70 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 32 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 84 | 69 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Ben King | FPR | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 55 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |