AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 16
CAR to win, 73% chance
CAR 73%27% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 2.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 42% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 42% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPR | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 79% | 55% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 59% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 55% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |