AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 16
CAR to win, 73% chance
CAR 73%27% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 2.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.8 to 9.0 | 2.2 to 11.6 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 46% | 30% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 77% | 63% | 49% | 35% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 49% | 35% | 23% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 69% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | CHF | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Dean | FB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Billy Wilson | HBFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 40% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 43% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Talor Byrne | FPL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Noble | HBFL | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 83% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 70% | 56% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 66% | 48% | 35% | 23% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Wil Powell | HBFR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 63% | 46% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 51% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 48% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ben Long | FPL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jai Murray | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Touk Miller | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | CHF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 29% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Lewis | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 23% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Patterson | INT | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |