AFL · ROUND 20 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 94% chance
FRE 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 25.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 28.4 | 24.2 to 32.5 | 17.7 to 39.0 | 96% | 89% | 72% | 38% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.6 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.1 | 14.2 to 34.2 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 18% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 23.5 | 19.7 to 27.4 | 13.7 to 33.4 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 14% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 8.0 | 5.5 to 10.4 | 1.6 to 14.3 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | HBFR | 25.1 | 21.1 to 29.0 | 14.9 to 35.2 | 98% | 87% | 58% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Williams | FPR | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 8.4 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 1.9 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |