AFL · ROUND 20 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 94% chance
FRE 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 25.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.6 | 1.7 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.8 | 84% | 59% | 37% | 23% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.6 | 1.7 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.8 | 84% | 59% | 37% | 23% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.4 | 1.6 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.6 | 81% | 59% | 35% | 17% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 66% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 44% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 24% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |