AFL · ROUND 20 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 44
FRE to win, 94% chance
FRE 94%6% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 70
HIT Actual margin 70 · 25.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | INT | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 57% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Michael Frederick | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Wagner | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 41% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Duggan | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 48% | 33% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.0 | 74% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | HBFR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.4 | 1.3 to 9.8 | 67% | 55% | 41% | 28% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brady Hough | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sandy Brock | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Cole | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tim Kelly | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Willem Duursma | WL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hamish Davis | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Johnston | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Williams | FPR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 2.0 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Francou | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |