AFL · ROUND 20 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 71% chance
GWS 29%71% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | C | 29.6 | 25.4 to 33.9 | 18.7 to 40.5 | 97% | 91% | 77% | 48% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | RR | 29.5 | 25.2 to 33.7 | 18.6 to 40.4 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 47% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 29.5 | 25.3 to 33.7 | 18.6 to 40.4 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 47% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 17.9 | 14.5 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Toby Bedford | INT | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.2 | 7.6 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 15.7 | 12.4 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.7 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFL | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Mills | BPL | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.1 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 41.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.6 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.8 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.7 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.8 | 7.9 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.8 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 63% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 6.9 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 14% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |