AFL · ROUND 20 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 71% chance
GWS 29%71% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 67% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Toby Bedford | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 58% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 52% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 40% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |