AFL · ROUND 20 · ENGIE STADIUM
GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 15
SYD to win, 71% chance
GWS 29%71% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 51
HIT Actual margin 51 · 36.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Idun | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | HBFL | 5.9 | 3.9 to 7.8 | 1.5 to 10.2 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Joe Fonti | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 29% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Taylor | FB | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 59% | 41% | 28% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Aaron Cadman | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Brown | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 44% | 28% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Conor Stone | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn Callaghan | RR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 26% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Rowston | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Ough | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Hamilton | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nicholas Madden | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Bedford | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Bice | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 35% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.1 | 48% | 29% | 16% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dane Rampe | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| William Edwards | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| James Jordon | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| James Rowbottom | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |