AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 52
HAW to win, 96% chance
HAW 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 93
HIT Actual margin 93 · 41.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 29.1 | 24.9 to 33.4 | 18.3 to 39.9 | 97% | 90% | 74% | 44% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 37.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 26.5 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Will Day | C | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | WL | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.6 to 36.1 | 96% | 82% | 55% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 25.0 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.1 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HFFR | 23.3 | 19.5 to 27.1 | 13.5 to 33.1 | 93% | 74% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WR | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.7 | 25.4 to 33.9 | 18.8 to 40.6 | 97% | 91% | 77% | 48% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Archie Roberts | INT | 28.2 | 24.1 to 32.4 | 17.6 to 38.9 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.9 | 20.1 to 27.8 | 14.0 to 33.9 | 97% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 23.1 | 19.3 to 27.0 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |