AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 52
HAW to win, 96% chance
HAW 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 93
HIT Actual margin 93 · 41.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 104 | 87 to 120 | 63 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 69% | 58% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 147 |
| Connor Macdonald | WL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Will Day | C | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 94 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HFFR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 129 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 53% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 77 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 106 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Archie Roberts | INT | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Sam Durham | C | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 78 | 62 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 29% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |