AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 52
HAW to win, 96% chance
HAW 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 93
HIT Actual margin 93 · 41.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.9 | 2.0 to 3.9 | 0.6 to 5.3 | 85% | 60% | 47% | 30% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.3 | 1.5 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 55% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | WL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 21% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 14% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 27% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |