AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 52
HAW to win, 96% chance
HAW 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 93
HIT Actual margin 93 · 41.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 81% | 69% | 55% | 40% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 67% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 61% | 45% | 30% | 19% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 56% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 47% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | WL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HFFR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 51% | 38% | 26% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 44% | 28% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 41% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 54% | 38% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Will Day | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 35% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 67% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Archie Roberts | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 63% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 23% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 38% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 51% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | C | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |