AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 52
HAW to win, 96% chance
HAW 96%4% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 93
HIT Actual margin 93 · 41.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 29.1 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 100 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 27.0 / inside our 90% range: 37.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.4 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 104 / outside our 90% range: 147 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 26.5 / inside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Will Day | C | 26.0 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Connor Macdonald | WL | 25.8 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Cam Mackenzie | R | 25.3 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 25.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 23.8 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 94 / inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | HFFR | 23.3 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 22.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Harry Morrison | INT | 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 20.4 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Bailey Macdonald | WR | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Oliver Greeves | INT | 15.2 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Noah Mraz | CHB | 14.9 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 14.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 14.6 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 14.0 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 2.9 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 129 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 13.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.7 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Archie Roberts | INT | 28.2 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Sam Durham | C | 23.9 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Mason Redman | HBFR | 23.2 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 93 / inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Will Setterfield | INT | 23.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Sullivan Robey | R | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 19.9 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 19.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Dyson Sharp | HFFL | 18.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Jordan Ridley | BPR | 18.6 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 77 / outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Angus Clarke | WL | 16.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 15.9 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 13.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Nik Cox | INT | 13.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Jaxon Artemis | WR | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 11.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Ben McKay | CHB | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPR | 9.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 43 |