AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 5
GEE to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 14.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.6 | 16.9 to 38.0 | 95% | 87% | 67% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.8 | 22.8 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | R | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 29% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 24.6 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 19.2 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | BPR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFL | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 8.9 | 6.3 to 11.5 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 31.4 | 27.1 to 35.8 | 20.3 to 42.6 | 99% | 95% | 83% | 58% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 21.1 | 17.5 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.6 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 16.7 | 13.3 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.2 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 15.9 | 12.7 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.3 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |