AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 5
GEE to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 14.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 111 | 95 to 128 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 80% | 66% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | R | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 105 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 85% | 72% | 59% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 105 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 94 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 39% | 23% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 76 | 61 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Lukas Cooke | BPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFL | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 110 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 89% | 78% | 65% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 40% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| James Worpel | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 89 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |