AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 5
GEE to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 14.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 55% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 68% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 1.4 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 52% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 47% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 46% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |