AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 5
GEE to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 14.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 37% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.2 to 9.6 | 71% | 54% | 39% | 29% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 61% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 19% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 37% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 54% | 38% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 37% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | R | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 34% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 19% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | BPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 43% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 63% | 46% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 20% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 30% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.4 to 7.7 | 54% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 24% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 41% | 25% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 1.7 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |