AFL · ROUND 20 · MCG
Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri 24 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 5
GEE to win, 58% chance
MEL 42%58% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 20
HIT Actual margin 20 · 14.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.5 | 81% | 69% | 56% | 46% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 48% | 27% | 15% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kade Chandler | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 43% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 47% | 28% | 15% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sharp | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Petty | CHB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paddy Cross | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | FPL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lukas Cooke | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blake Howes | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.7 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 85% | 74% | 61% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 68% | 50% | 36% | 24% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 63% | 47% | 32% | 23% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 44% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | BPR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |