AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 17
STK to win, 74% chance
NM 26%74% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.5 | 27.1 to 35.8 | 20.3 to 42.6 | 99% | 95% | 83% | 58% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 25.6 | 21.6 to 29.6 | 15.3 to 35.8 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 26% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 21% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.1 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 84% | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 12.4 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Griffin Logue | HBFL | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.3 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | WL | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.0 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 30.3 | 26.0 to 34.6 | 19.3 to 41.3 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 54% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 46.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 34% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.9 | 22.9 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 24.1 | 20.2 to 28.0 | 14.1 to 34.1 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.4 | 90% | 65% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 20.5 | 16.9 to 24.1 | 11.2 to 29.8 | 85% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | - |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 15.9 | 12.7 to 19.2 | 7.5 to 24.3 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 13.5 | 10.4 to 16.6 | 5.6 to 21.3 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.2 to 20.5 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Max King | INT | 9.2 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |