AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 17
STK to win, 74% chance
NM 26%74% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 117 | 100 to 134 | 76 to 158 | 97% | 93% | 86% | 75% | 61% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 102 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 71 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Griffin Logue | HBFL | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Matt Whitlock | WL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 111 | 95 to 128 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 79% | 66% | 53% | outside our 90% range: 182 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 55% | 37% | - |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 101 | 85 to 118 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 52% | 36% | inside our 90% range: 131 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 94 | 79 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 41% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 113 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 37% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Max King | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |