AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 17
STK to win, 74% chance
NM 26%74% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 64% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 33% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | WL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 26% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 70% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 65% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max King | INT | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 69% | 37% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 58% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 29% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |