AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 17
STK to win, 74% chance
NM 26%74% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Parker | BPR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.4 | 1.8 to 10.9 | 80% | 68% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 74% | 60% | 46% | 31% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 22% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 59% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 70% | 52% | 36% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 27% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Griffin Logue | HBFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 46% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 43% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | WL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.3 | 3.0 to 13.1 | 89% | 83% | 74% | 63% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 6.4 | 4.4 to 8.4 | 1.9 to 10.9 | 80% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.3 | 1.8 to 10.8 | 79% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max King | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 48% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | - |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 50% | 35% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 31% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |