AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 17
STK to win, 74% chance
NM 26%74% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | RR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 31% | 17% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Scott | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Harvey | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Goater | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Whitlock | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Parker | BPR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 1.3 | 0.5 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | HBFL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Max Hall | HFFR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 68% | 55% | 36% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 53% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 56% | 35% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | C | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 50% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 44% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | - |
| Dan Butler | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 34% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hunter Clark | INT | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | CHB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Owens | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Wood | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Stocker | BPR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Ryan | CHF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Max King | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |