AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 27
WB to win, 84% chance
WB 84%16% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 30.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 26.8 | 22.7 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.2 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 27% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 26.3 | 22.3 to 30.4 | 16.0 to 36.7 | 95% | 85% | 59% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 23.7 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 23.2 | 19.3 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 18.3 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.0 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 12.2 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 26.4 | 22.4 to 30.5 | 16.1 to 36.8 | 95% | 85% | 60% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.6 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 18.9 | 15.4 to 22.4 | 9.9 to 27.9 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 16.4 | 13.0 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 16.4 | 13.1 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.9 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WR | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kye Annand | FB | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.7 | 5.1 to 20.4 | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 9.2 | 6.6 to 11.8 | 2.5 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |