AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 27
WB to win, 84% chance
WB 84%16% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 30.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Ed Richards | R | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 67% | 54% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 128 |
| Tim English | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 75% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 68% | 50% | 34% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 28% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 76 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 124 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 78% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 29 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 27 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Kye Annand | FB | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |