AFL · ROUND 20 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 27
WB to win, 84% chance
WB 84%16% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 57
HIT Actual margin 57 · 30.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.0 | 82% | 69% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Coffield | INT | 5.3 | 3.4 to 7.1 | 1.2 to 9.4 | 65% | 48% | 34% | 22% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jedd Busslinger | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 62% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 68% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Buku Khamis | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 58% | 41% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 60% | 44% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 55% | 41% | 28% | 17% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James O'Donnell | FB | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Joel Freijah | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 42% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cody Weightman | FPR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | HBFL | 6.0 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.6 to 10.4 | 75% | 61% | 47% | 32% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.8 to 8.7 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Brown | BPR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 30% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tyler Sonsie | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 46% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kye Annand | FB | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 42% | 26% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 28% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 29% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 32% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Cumming | R | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zane Peucker | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Taj Hotton | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |