AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 21
BRI to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 76
MISS Actual margin 76 · 96.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 27.6 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 108 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.7 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 102 / outside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 25.3 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 93 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| George Hewett | INT | 22.2 / outside our 90% range: 33.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 83 / outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 21.4 / inside our 90% range: 26.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 87 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 19.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 19.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Cooper Lord | HBFR | 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 17.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.6 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Ben Ainsworth | CHF | 16.5 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 14.0 / outside our 90% range: 23.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / outside our 90% range: 11.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.0 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 65 / inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPL | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 9.6 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 / inside our 50% range: 26.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 103 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.7 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 106 / inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.7 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.2 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 97 / outside our 90% range: 57 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.3 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 97 / inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 86 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 19.4 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Keidean Coleman | HBFR | 18.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.7 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.8 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 16.1 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 77 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.5 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.7 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.3 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 13.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.0 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 42 |