AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 21
BRI to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 76
MISS Actual margin 76 · 96.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.2 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 28% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.1 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 12.0 to 30.9 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 19.8 | 16.2 to 23.4 | 10.6 to 29.0 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 19.6 | 16.0 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cooper Lord | HBFR | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | CHF | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPL | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 29.2 | 25.0 to 33.5 | 18.4 to 40.1 | 97% | 90% | 75% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.6 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.6 | 10.1 to 28.1 | 78% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | HBFR | 18.1 | 14.6 to 21.5 | 9.2 to 26.9 | 72% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 17.8 | 14.4 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.6 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 15.7 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 9.3 | 6.7 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |