AFL · ROUND 21 · MARVEL STADIUM
Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 21
BRI to win, 78% chance
CAR 22%78% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 76
MISS Actual margin 76 · 96.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 108 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 63% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 90% | 81% | 66% | 54% | 37% | outside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 84% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Oliver Florent | BPR | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| George Hewett | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 135 |
| Nick Haynes | CHB | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Ben Ainsworth | CHF | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Cooper Lord | HBFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 55% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Harry McKay | FF | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 116 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Brodie Kemp | FPR | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Mitch McGovern | FPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Wade Derksen | FB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | C | 106 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 86% | 72% | 59% | 45% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 97 | 82 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 97 | 81 to 113 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 78% | 64% | 46% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 57 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 65% | 42% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Keidean Coleman | HBFR | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Hugh McCluggage | INT | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Levi Ashcroft | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Bruce Reville | INT | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Oscar Allen | HFFR | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Eric Hipwood | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Conor McKenna | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |